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With just four weeks remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the track action will be intense as drivers vie for playoff spots.
Cup drivers will travel to Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington before the 16-driver playoff field is set. Twelve drivers have secured at least one win this year (Austin Cindric, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Daniel Suarez), leaving four spots up for grabs.
Beyond the primary focus of who will make the playoffs, here are four major storylines to follow in the coming month:
Driver Market Movement
Most teams are expected to finalize their 2025 rosters over the next month.
Available spots are present within teams like Spire, Front Row, Kaulig, and Rick Ware Racing. Additionally, Trackhouse and 23XI Racing might add a third team each. Trackhouse seems inclined to choose Shane van Gisbergen for its Cup car, while 23XI is likely to land Riley Herbst, who would bring additional Monster Energy funding.
Justin Haley might return to Spire, replacing Corey LaJoie, who could swap places with him at Rick Ware Racing. Zane Smith might go back to Front Row, which has also been in talks with Sam Mayer, who has financial backing.
Kaulig and Rick Ware Racing’s decisions might hinge on sponsorship. It’s still undetermined whether any of their current Cup drivers will return. AJ Allmendinger has expressed willingness to do what Kaulig needs and hasn’t ruled out a Cup return.
Contract Negotiations
A few weeks ago, the teams made a counteroffer to NASCAR, but there appears to have been little to no meaningful dialogue since.
While an agreement had been hoped for by early summer, it now seems more likely to be reached in the fall. Teams want charters to be permanent and seek a higher share of television and other media revenues.
The next hurdle could be whether teams agree to a seven-year deal, matching the current television package (2025-2031), rather than seeking a longer-term contract. This might be more feasible, and teams could hope that NASCAR Chairman Jim France, at age 79, hands over NASCAR to his nephew, Ben Kennedy, before the next negotiation (with Kennedy potentially being more receptive to team owners’ demands).
According to SportsBusiness Journal, teams might opt out of participating in the next installment of the Netflix sports series, using this as leverage to gain concessions regarding the charter agreement.
2025 Schedule Announcement
Remember back in May when rumors suggested the schedule would be released sooner than expected?
Well, the answer was “later.”
It should be announced this month. Emphasis on “should.”
Gateway is likely headed to the playoffs, as are Darlington and possibly New Hampshire. Atlanta (already announced) returns in the summer, as do Watkins Glen and Homestead in the spring.
Mexico City? It varies week to week—it’s either a certainty or a question. If it happens, Richmond is the most likely track to lose a date.
Iowa (new for 2024), Chicago Street Circuit (with a city deal that can be canceled until January), and COTA (leased by Speedway Motorsports for NASCAR races) are expected to return to the Cup schedule.
Despite some buzz about Rockingham, it is not expected to be on the Cup schedule. More likely, other national series races will take place there.
Richmond and Tires
NASCAR will provide teams with two sets of softer tires for this weekend at Richmond, the same “option” tires used at North Wilkesboro, which did not wear as quickly as anticipated. However, Richmond’s surface is much tougher than North Wilkesboro’s.
In the spring, teams were given nine sets (eight new sets and one used set) of standard tires and will only have seven sets (six new sets and one used set) along with the two softer sets for this 400-lap event.
When teams tested the softer tires in Iowa earlier this year, they lasted only 15 laps. Thus, teams are unsure how many laps they can get before significant wear occurs.
NASCAR hopes to allow teams a 45-minute session on Saturday at Richmond to assess the wear on the softer rubber (and its speed). This is weather permitting, as Tropical Storm Debby might not be forgiving in the area on Saturday.
It remains to be seen if NASCAR will use the softer rubber in any playoff races. Richmond won’t be the only track where teams might be puzzled by tire wear as the series heads toward the playoffs. In a Bristol tire test last month, drivers faced the same faster-than-expected wear issues as in the spring. Initially, temperature was thought to be a factor, but it now seems that Bristol’s concrete and resin combination is causing durability problems.
However, if all teams know what to expect, they can potentially race accordingly. Whether NASCAR will provide extra sets of tires beyond the original plan is yet to be determined.
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